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Technical Analysis Introduction
Written by Forexmotion   
Thursday, 15 January 2009 16:19

Index:
1. Market Movements: Trends and consolidation. Impulse and corrective formations for different approaches.
2. Identification of movements both with and without impulsive characteristics.

1. Market Movements: Trends and consolidation. Impulse and corrective formations for different approaches.

The starting point of the system on which the model is constructed is simple. Technically speaking, an asset can be bullish, bearish or neutral; there are no other possibilities. In addition, each case can anticipate movements and generate dealing appropriate for every investment profile, i.e. it is more or less agile. At this point it should be noted that, in concept, bearish and bullish trends are the same, but in opposite directions. However, neutral motion (sideways movement) is the answer to a process of consolidation or correction of a previous trend. We can therefore divide movements into two types

  • Impulsive, i.e. trends, and
  • Corrective, i.e. consolidation.

Technical analysis tries to separate movements, distinguish one from another, which is basic for their classification (as far as impulses and corrections are concerned) within an appropriate time frame.

Regarding the consequences of the operation, it is always less serious when the opposite position to the movement is taken during correction. The most dangerous deals take place during trending as, in neutral processes, limited liquidation losses tend to appear. As we shall see, the key is the use of stop loss in order to prevent operational errors especially when the market is trending.

It is important to clarify that impulse movement or trend has certain characteristics, whether it is upwards or downwards.

Impulse movements are pro-trend, they are trends in themselves. However, when a movement has no impulsive characteristics, or is against the main trend i.e. it is a correction or, a priori, it is an impulse movement which has failed. Both cases (corrections or failed impulse) share similar characteristics and common elements which, despite the fact that they require different conceptual classifications are, in practice, treated as the same.

Impulse movements, either upward or downward, are followed by minor corrections i.e. an uptrend falls slightly before continuing and reaching new peaks. In a bear trend small rebounds occur, but later the trend proceeds and sets new lows.

It is clear therefore that it is necessary to describe an impulse or non-impulse movement to assess its continuation potential.

 

Guidelines, Support and Resistance: A Memo

Basically a technical structure or model could be summed up as the layout of trend lines, support and resistance as the main limitation of movement. Other elements, figures and formations can be expressed as combinations of these three basic elements.

On setting aside an earlier orientative bull movement, it is confirmed as completed, regardless of prior signs of exhaustion or not.

The support and resistance levels also limit and define the state of an asset, so once lost or passed, they confirm the end of one stage and the start of a new one.

Support and resistance levels can contain a certain degree of inclination without thereby becoming trend lines, as they are not trends but simply accumulation points of supply and demand.

Once exceeded, support and resistance levels change their character.
We will go into more detail on this later.

 

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2. Identification of movements both with and without impulsive characteristics.

The start of an impulse movement is usually weaker than the rest of the trend. Assuming bullishness, after the first limited advance, there is a correction followed by a new climb often with a steeper slope. Thus, if a first trend line is drawn between the origin of the movement (time 0) and the bearish correction (time 2) we obtain a straight line whose slope would not adjust to the posterior movement, and which would form a parallel channel from which the price "exits". In the graph we observe the evolution of the German Dax. After the crisis of ´98 at levels slightly lower than the 4,000 points, the Dax recovered in two sections: the first up to the 5500 zone and the second from 5000 to 8000 points. Despite the magnitude of the increase, with gains of 100% the movement shows no sign of impulsive characteristics.

Despite the fact that the price often rebounds on reaching trend line 0-2, , on this occasion not even a minimum rebound occurs. This may be temporary

Movements that lack impulse can also be recognized by other characteristics:

The more gentle slope of a second upward impulse compared to the previous, is usually a sign of weakness in the structure. There are typically three movements instead of impulses which tend to occur in five subsections i.e. the typical layout responds to proportional zigzag movements.


Implications of a non-impulsive structure.

Once clarified that a movement may be impulsive or not, regardless of the length of its route, it can be stated that impulse status has implications, not for the section covered, but for its continuation possibilities. Since the implications of non-impulsive structures are lesser-known than impulsive structures (when treated in depth by general technical analysis), we should focus on the implications of non-impulsive structures.

The main conclusion obtained from the study of non-impulsive structures is that they often give way to the rupture of the trend line and a severe logical correction, given the lack of momentum in the previous movement. Thus, the area that tends to act as a reference is the last section (upward or downward, as appropriate).

Neutral Movements

Something worth mentioning is that a non-impulsive movement, i.e. neutral, means neutral with respect to a previous motion or at least relatively so. What does this mean?

Left: IBM Price Evolution.

In approximately 8 years prices rose from levels above $ 10 to $ 140 area. In a few months they fell to $ 90 and then recovered again surpassing $ 130. They fell again, somewhat more, to $ 80 and picked up again, not to record levels but to levels near.

This is a neutral movement after the trend, but it should be noted that the previous trend goes from $ 10 to $ 140, so consolidation levels between $ 90 and $ 140 can be considered neutral. However from $ 140 one third of its market capital is lost, which is not acceptable if buyers maintain their positions. From the simple bullish/bearish or neutral model, opportunities and strategies emerge.

At the moment, with this example, we have found that in a neutral phase (seen as neutral with respect to the previously strong upward trend) the positions are inappropriate for buyers, since the range covered by this movement is very broad.

You might think (and rightly so) that the movement is neutral with respect to the strong previous upward trend, but bearish from a lower time scale point of view. Moreover, this is the key to the identification of technical structures. This is even the key to intra-day dealing and trading as we shall see later. In this sense, it is extremely important to understand that although the long-term investor can ignore short-term evolution (but not modify certain parameters) the opposite is not true.

Intra-day dealing using 5-minute charts should take into account all the time scales in which deals take place, including the extremely long-term.

 

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