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Technical Analysis - Indicators
Written by Forexmotion   
Thursday, 15 January 2009 16:20
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Index:
1. Introduction.
2. Indicators.
3. Oscillators.
4. Divergences.
5. The use of indicators and oscillators.

1.Introduction.
Due to its specific characteristics of objectivity and analysis of particular measurements (mostly range of prices and volume), technical analysis lends itself well to the use of algorithms. These algorithms use historical price, volume, etc. as input and provide output values to generate signals for buying and selling or evaluate the trend of the stock, etc…

Although it is customary to speak of indicators in general, we must distinguish between two kinds of quantitative techniques:
  • Indicators work well when the price is trending (and are therefore often referred to as trend indicators).

  • Oscillators work well when the price is moving sideways. They can also detect changes in trend with some foresight. They tend to escalate to a level between -1 and +1 or between 0 and 100.

 

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2.Indicators.
I - Moving average:

This is one of the most commonly used quantitative elements. It is carried out by calculating the average data (normally closing prices) in a given period for each day of trading. That is why it is called “moving”; the time period or window is variable, so that shorter moving averages (e.g. 7 sessions) run tighter to the price and are more appropriate for the short term, while the more extensive (21 , 65, 200 sessions) react more slowly and are suitable for analyzing larger time frames.

Figure 1: Rates for IBEX 35 with 15 & 45 session moving averages.


In Figure 1 we can see moving averages built on the IBEX 35. You can see how, to a greater or lesser extent, they “soften” price movement, eliminating the characteristic "sawtooth" pattern and providing clearer, but less sensitive tracking.


The crossing point of the price with moving averages often indicates a change in due time, but we must bear in mind that it is not an advance indicator, its movement occurs simultaneously with the price. However, it allows us to observe the best moment for a trend change. So moving averages can also be considered as levels of support and resistance.

The crossing point of one moving average over another can also be used as an indicator of trend change. Specifically, when a short moving average crosses a long one upwards, a bullish signal is generated and vice versa.


Typically, in deeper analysis, weighted moving averages are used. The algorithm for the weighted moving average, often following an exponential formula, gives more poderosity to recent prices in the window and less to the old ones. This prevents the output of an older price distorting the average and produces a better quality indicator.


II - Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD):

The MACD consists of a "fast" line obtained from the moving price average exponentials, and a "slow" one obtained from the softening of the “fast” moving average line. When the fast line crosses below the slow, it indicates a bearish market, while crossing above indicates bull control. You can also directly subtract the value of both lines and observe it as a histogram, so when it changes from a positive value to negative or vice versa it indicates a moving average crossing. In Figure 2 we see this representation.

 

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3.Oscillators.

I. Momentum:


This measures the present value of the price compared to a specified number of former periods. It indicates the speed at which the price changes. The shorter the period, the more closely monitored the price and the shorter the appropriate study period will be. It has the problem of undergoing sharp changes.


II. Relative Strength Index (RSI)


This tries to correct the aforementioned problem (see I.), and is one of the most popular oscillators. RSI is calculated dividing the moving average exponential (MME) of the bullish closing days by the MME of the bearish closing days. It is then adjusted to a scale from 0 to 100. It is considered that a value above 70-80 indicates overbuying and a 20-30 below indicates overselling, thus forming appropriate selling and buying points. Again, the shorter the period is, the more sensitive the RSI will be (increasing its accuracy, but also the number of false signals).
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4.Divergences.

In addition to the signals that define each technical indicator or which can be built using them, the most interesting use is the search for divergences. Divergence consists of observing a technical indicator to see if it opposes the price trend. If there are divergences in the indicators we can say that the price trend is weak or is likely to reverse soon. Let us observe an example with the RSI:

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5.The use of indicators and oscillators.

The great advantage of using quantitative techniques is its objectivity. By combining multiple indicators and signal levels, interesting indications about the strength of a trend can be obtained or if the price is overbought or oversold. However, the use of quantitative data should always be a complement to other analysis techniques carried out on asset prices(charting, candlestick etc.). The presence of false signals is significant enough to recommend this approach.


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